The International Energy Agency (IEA)'s India Energy Outlook 2021 Report forecasts that India shall become the 3rd largest energy consumer in the world by 2030 overtaking the EU and just behind China and the US. India's energy consumption is expected to nearly double as the nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expands to an estimated USD 8.6 trillion by 2040 under its current national policy scenario. By 2040, India is set to account for almost 20% of Global Growth in Industrial value-added, and to lead global growth in industrial final energy consumption, especially in steelmaking.

Rising oil demand could double India's oil import bill to about USD 181 billion by 2030 and nearly treble it to USD 255 billion by 2040 compared with 2019. Its net dependence on oil imports - taking into account both the import of crude oil and the export of oil products - increases to more than 90% by 2040 from the current 75% as domestic consumption rises much more than production. Natural gas import dependency increased from 20% in 2010 to almost 50% in 2019 and is set to grow further to more than 60% in 2040. Coal demand is seen rising to 772 million tonnes in 2040 from the current 590.

As the world seeks ways to accelerate the pace of transformation in the energy sector, India is in a unique position to pioneer a new model for low-carbon, inclusive growth. If this can be done, it will show the way for a whole group of energy-hungry developing economies, by demonstrating that robust economic expansion is fully compatible with an increasing pace of emissions reductions and the achievement of other development goals.

India is already a global leader in solar power, and solar combined with batteries will play a massive part in India’s energy future. But India will need a whole host of technologies and policies to chart this new path. As new industrial sectors emerge and clean energy jobs grow, India will also need to ensure that no one is left behind, including in those regions that are heavily dependent on coal today.